GAUGЕIQ
East London
Temperature
Air pressure
Wind
Current dew point, humidity, rainfall and cloud cover.
Today's forecast maximum precipitation probability.
Probability comes from the weather provider's daily forecast; rainfall is the predicted daily total. Neither is calculated from humidity alone.
Current method: use the provider's daily maximum precipitation probability directly (0–100%). Display the predicted daily rainfall amount separately in millimetres.
Weights: forecast probability 100% of the displayed probability. Recent rain, humidity, dew point, pressure and cloud cover are not yet used to adjust the percentage; they will be supporting signals only after calibration against observed outcomes.
Limitation: this is the forecast's daily maximum probability, not a calibrated GaugeIQ prediction for a particular hour. Forecast calibration needs saved forecast snapshots and later observations.
A weighted measure of how much recent conditions have changed — not a rain probability.
Formula: score = 10 × (sum of each signal's weight × its severity) ÷ (sum of weights for signals with valid readings). Each severity is between 0 and 1. The result is capped at 10 and rounded to one decimal place.
Interpretation: 0–1.9 stable, 2–3.9 minor, 4–5.9 moderate, 6–7.9 significant, 8–10 very significant change. These initial weights and thresholds are provisional engineering rules, not yet statistically calibrated to local history.
\nRecent baseline: GaugeIQ calculates the same six-hour score for the previous 14 daily windows and compares the current score with their median. It needs at least 5 valid comparison windows; a difference of 2 or more points is labelled above or below the recent pattern. This context does not change the intensity score, and seasonal comparison is not yet implemented.
Missing values are excluded rather than treated as zero. GaugeIQ compares the current six-hour change with up to 14 previous comparable six-hour windows. This is a short-term local pattern, not a seasonal climate normal.
Interprets whether the recent pattern points towards more settled or more unsettled conditions.
This is a separate directional assessment, not the Weather Change score. Pressure trend has weight 2; rainfall trend weight 2; wind-speed trend weight 1; cloud-cover trend weight 1; and change in reported weather severity weight 2.
Falling pressure, developing rain, strengthening wind, increasing cloud cover and more severe weather codes support a Worsening classification. The opposite signals can support Improving. The combined directional score must reach ±2 to classify a trend; otherwise the result is Steady/no clear trend.
These are provisional rules. Rising pressure or a change in wind/clouds is not universally better or worse, so the explanation shows the evidence and the classification should not be treated as a formal safety warning.
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Live Earth imagery from EUMETSAT's Meteosat-12 Africa stream.
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Last refreshed at 11 Oct 2026, 10:45